Some say that turning to diplomacy in the face of nuclear threats will prompt a rash of nuclear proliferation and coercion. They’re wrong. This short article explains why the outcome of the Ukraine war will have little bearing on nations’ pursuit of nuclear weapons and little effect on the incidence of nuclear coercion. While nuclear coercion is…[Read more]

Western leaders and Kyiv pledge to “stay the course” in the Ukraine war despite Russian nuclear threats. But does western brinkmanship in the Ukraine war depend on denying there is a brink? This policy report examines “nuclear threat denialism” and its function in war policy. It explores Moscow’s most likely but occluded nuclear option and the u…[Read more]

This article tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that…[Read more]