• Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy

    Author(s):
    Carl Conetta (see profile)
    Date:
    2023
    Subject(s):
    Ukraine, Russia, International relations, War, Nuclear weapons, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Military policy, Peace, Diplomacy, National security
    Item Type:
    White paper
    Institution:
    Project on Defense Alternatives
    Tag(s):
    Crisis in Ukraine, War in Ukraine 2022
    Permanent URL:
    https://doi.org/10.17613/znp0-sn86
    Abstract:
    This article tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising as Ukraine’s armed forces push forward toward Crimea and the Russian border while also increasing their retaliatory attacks on recognized Russian territory. On its present trajectory, the crisis will soon run a risk of nuclear conflict greater than that experienced during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
    Metadata:
    xml
    Published as:
    Online publication     Show details
    Pub. URL:
    https://comw.org/pda/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html
    Publisher:
    Commonwealth Institute
    Pub. Date:
    February 6, 2023
    Website:
    https://comw.org/pda
    Status:
    Published
    Last Updated:
    4 months ago
    License:
    All Rights Reserved
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