• A theory of disaster-driven societal collapse and how to prevent it

    Author(s):
    Lajos Brons (see profile)
    Date:
    2019
    Group(s):
    Humanity Studies of Climate Change
    Subject(s):
    Sociology of disaster, Weather and climate, Geography, Collapse, Globalization
    Item Type:
    Article
    Tag(s):
    climate change, Refugees, Disasters
    Permanent URL:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.17613/51rk-d378
    Abstract:
    One of the effects of climate change is an increase in extreme weather and natural disasters. Unless CO₂ emissions are significantly reduced very soon, it is inevitable that the effects of disaster will exceed many (and ultimately all) societies' mitigation capacity. Compounding unmitigated disaster effects will slowly but surely push a society towards collapse. Because no part of the planet is safe from the increase in natural disaster intensity and because some of the effects of disasters — such as refugees and economic decline — spill over boundaries, this will eventually lead to global societal collapse. Furthermore, just reducing CO₂ emissions is insufficient to prevent this, as disaster intensity is expected to exceed mitigation capacity in some global regions within one or two decades from now. To avoid a cascade of collapse it is necessary to reverse economic globalization and decrease long-distance trade, as well as to implement a global resettlement program for the increasing number of climate refugees.
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    Status:
    Published
    Last Updated:
    10 months ago
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